Global Avoidable Mortality

AVOIDABLE MORTALITY - or EXCESS MORTALITY - is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality in a country and the mortality EXPECTED in a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics. AVOIDABLE MORTALITY and INFANT MORTALITY are KEY INDICATORS of the HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of national and global policies.

Saturday, July 09, 2005

Horrendous Global Avoidable Mortality and Under-5 Infant Mortality

Dr Gideon Polya

AVOIDABLE MORTALITY (or EXCESS MORTALITY) is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality in a country and the mortality EXPECTED in a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics.

Using Web-accessible UN Population Division Data [1] it has been possible to estimate avoidable mortality (excess mortality) and under-5 infant mortality for every country in the World since 1950. The results are horrendous.

The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality (excess mortality) has been 1.3 billion for the World, 1.2 billion for the non-European World and about 0.6 billion for the Muslim World - a Muslim Holocaust about 100 times greater than the World War 2 Jewish Holocaust (6 million victims) and the World War 2 Bengal Famine in British-ruled India (4 million Hindu and Muslim victims).

By way of corroboration, the under-5 infant mortality has been 0.88 billion for the World, 0.85 billion for the non-European World and about 0.4 billion for the Muslim World.

Whether a person dies VIOLENTLY or dies NON-VIOLENTLY from deprivation or malnourishment-exacerbated disease the end result is the same and the culpability the same.

Further, the Ruler is responsible for the Ruled and hence an Occupying Power is clearly responsible for avoidable mortality in a conquered country. However avoidable mortality and "foreign control" do not cease when foreign soldiers depart - indeed "occupation" can include economic and political hegemony by a foreign power.

First World countries (notably the US, UK, France, Portugal and Russia) variously have a major responsibility for the horrendous post-1950 avoidable mortality in the non-European World through impositions such as colonial occupation, neo-colonial control, corrupt client regimes, militarization, debt, malignant interference, war, civil war, economic exclusion and economic constraint.

War and foreign occupation have had a major impact on avoidable mortality. This is simply illustrated by geo-political grouping of the countries of the World and expressing their post-1950 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality as percentages of the present (2005) population (indicative of how many post-1950 avoidable deaths or under-5 year old deaths, respectively, for every 100 people alive today for the country or region in question).

Post-1950 avoidable mortality as a percentage of present population has been 2.7% (Overseas Europe, comprising North America, Australasia and Israel), 5.0% (Western Europe), 7.5% (Eastern Europe), 9.4% (Latin America and Caribbean), 10.9% (East Asia), 20.7% (Central Asia), 23.0% (Arab North Africa & Middle East), 25.1% (South East Asia), 27.3% (Pacific), 31.9% (South Asia) and 43.2% (non-Arab Africa).

Post-1950 under-5 infant mortality as a percentage of present population has been 1.5% (Overseas Europe), 1.7% (Western Europe), 3.8% (Eastern Europe), 9.7% (Latin America and Caribbean), 10.7% (East Asia), 12.8% (South East Asia), 13.0% (Pacific), 17.0% (Central Asia), 15.4% (Arab North Africa and Middle East), 19.5% (South Asia) and 27.3% (non-Arab Africa).

It can be clearly seen from the above data that proportional avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality correlate with the extent of foreign occupation. For further information on avoidable mortality, under-5 infant mortality and relevant social conditions see my website [2] and the latest UNICEF reports [3]. The impact of war, foreign occupation and foreign malignant interference on avoidable mortality will be explored in future posts.


[1] United Nations, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, PopulationDivision, "World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision PopulationDatabase" (for the latest 2004 Revision update see: )
[2] For detailed links to writings by Gideon Polya on avoidable global mortality consult his website (see:
[3] UNICEF report, 2005 (see:


  • At 9:10 PM, Blogger Mike Ballard said…

    Heard you on ABC Radio National this morning. Good on ya. The dominant tend to turn a blind eye to their own crimes. You won't be liked for saying so. Most people embrace a militant ignorance which forms a defensive shield around their psychological stability.

    Mike B)

  • At 3:58 PM, Blogger Dr Gideon Polya said…

    MARCH 2006 - UPDATED FIGURES ON THE HUMAN & ECONOMIC COST OF BUSH WARS (Third anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq):

    THE LATEST UN FIGURES (see: indicate that the post-invasion avoidable mortality (excess mortality, man-made mortality) is 0.5 MILLION (US-occupied Iraq) and 1.8 MILLION (US-occupied Afghanistan); the post-invasion under-5 infant mortality totals 0.4 MILLION and 1.4 MILLION, respectively.

    THE LATEST UNICEF FIGURES (see: indicate that 0.5 MILLION under-5 year old infants die in Occupied Iraq and Afghanistan annually (1,300 daily and 90% avoidably) due to NON-PROVISION by the Occupying UK-US-led Coalition of the life-sustaining requisites demanded of Occupiers by the Geneva Conventions (passive genocide) (see:

    THE LATEST UN OFFICE FOR DRUGS & CRIME (UNODC) FIGURES (see: indicate that the post-2001 global opiate drug-related deaths total 0.4 MILLION due to restoration by the US-led Coalition of the globally-dominant Afghan opium industry destroyed by the Taliban in 2000/2001; in the major “White”, Anglo-Celtic countries the post-2001 opiate drug deaths total about 1,200 (Scotland), 1,600 (Australia), 3,000 (Canada), 3,200 (UK) and 50,000 (US) (see:

    THE COALITION LEADERS are responsible for an avoidable post-invasion death toll of at least 2.7 MILLION including a post-invasion avoidable mortality in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories (2.3 MILLION) and post-2001 global opioid drug deaths (0.4 MILLION); these estimates IGNORE the global economic impact of the war and increased oil prices on the largely Third World post-2001 global avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality that total 64 MILLION and 42 MILLION, respectively (16.0 MILLION and 10.6 MILLION annually and about 44,000 and 29,000 daily, respectively) (see:

    THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC) has now stopped dealing with the crimes of Milosevic (complicity in 0.2 MILLION deaths) but REFUSES to deal with the war crimes of the Coalition leadership (currently totaling 2.7 MILLION avoidable deaths) (see FORMAL COMPLAINT TO ICC in MWC News:

    OVER 2,300 US SOLDIERS have been killed in Iraq and 17,400 wounded - and the ECONOMIC COST to the US of of the Iraq War has been estimated by US 2001 Economics Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard Professor Linda Bilmes at between US$1 TRILLION and US$2 TRILLION (see:

  • At 5:26 AM, Blogger Sal said…

    You think these figures are outrageous? Wait until figures start pouring in on the coming famine. 30 years ago there was a move to curb population growth and it was laughed at. It still is - at a time when over clearing of land is causing out of control desertification of the land mass. Little is being done to revegetate areas still salvageable (Japan is leading in the research of how revegetation can be achieved - it's not as easy as just "plant a tree" to do so.

    As people are driven from farmlands which are rapidly becoming desert, they place strain on the carrying capacity of other areas due to urban spread and more farming.

    We are over carrying capacity by 2/3 worldwide.

    This situation is human caused and is the true human component in global warming which has been covered up - the elite stand to gain much more by making us think it is due to C2O2.

    We refuse to control our population rates even at this late date. It's okay - nature is about to do it for us. And as far as gov's causing death by war - wait until you see the genocide that results from government controlled distribution of shortages of food supplies.

  • At 12:51 PM, Blogger Dr Gideon Polya said…

    Man-made global warming is an acutely serious threat to humanity (see the latest IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007). It is ALREADY impacting food production in Africa. Professor James Lovelock FRS predicts 6 billion deaths due to global warming this coming century failing drastic action.

    However there is ALREADY severe food shortage for several billion people; grain stocks currently are only for 57 days; the price of grain has increased by about 30% in the last 6 months.

    Global warming, loss of arable land, salinization, declinign fish stocks, water shortages and other deficiencies are limiting FOOD PRODUCTION. However grain for biofuel production (a crime against humanity in the prresent situation ) and increased grain conversion to animal protein for consumption by the rich have ALSO increased PRICE.

    Yes, the world is facing a catastrophe due First World greed, racism and resolute refusal to look at the consequences of its action - global warming, mounting food prices and horrendous impending global famine.

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